甜瓜切条，裹在火腿里面，撒点胡椒什么的，一口一个。

ONP = Olympic National Park.

It would have been on my list of Places to Go if I weren't there for one day with Mr and Mrs Herbert (should be Mr and Mrs Chen?) in 2007 summer. This time, I put two days there with my wife and two friends Steven and Catherine. Two ladies and two guys.

We left Bellevue at 6:40am on 8/28 morning. We got onboard the 7:50am ferry from Edmonds to Kingston. Ferry was half an hour and after that it took us another two hours to get to the ONP visitor center near Port Angeles, including a short stop at Sequim for breakfast and coffee. We first visited Hurricane Ridge, where we had a hour somehow-casual hiking, which doesn't have a lot gain of elevation and hence is easier than Mountain Si.

We left Hurricane Ridge for Lake Crescent at about lunch time. Two ladies fell in sleep at back seat and Steven was driving. So the two guys decided to take some risk. We didn't follow what GPS told us to do. About 1 mile after passing the ranger station on Hurricane Ridge Rd, we took a left turn onto Lake Dawn Rd, which is marked as unpaved road on the map. Very soon we were regretful: that unpaved road was really really rough. At a moment we both believed our Toyota Corolla was about to fall apart.

We arrived Lake Crescent at about 2pm. It was a beautiful peaceful lake. We had lunch at Lake Crescent Lodge and rolled boats on the lake. We spent more than three hours there, so we canceled the visit to Sol Duc Valley, which was the third place to go on the first day on our original travel plan.

We returned to Port Townsend at about 7pm. We stayed in the Olympic Hostel. We pick the hostel not for budget but just enjoying the youth hostel feel. In our trips in California and east coast in 2008, we also stayed in youth hostels in Monterey, San Francisco, New York, Boston, Philadelphia, DC and Baltimore.

On the second day morning, we left for the coast line at about 7 something. We arrived at Rialto Beach at about 10am. It was a breath-taking view at Rialto Beach!

The First Beach, Second Beach and Third Beach right next to Rialto Beach also offer stunning view. It was not a short hike from parking lot to the Second Beach. In half way we were talking about whether shall we continue. But when we got to the beach, at the first sight we all felt that everything is paid back.

Olympic was so big that we drove more than 13-14 hours in two days. Three of us can drive and we took turn. For people like me, driving is not a debt. Last year, I alone drove from Seattle to Portland, OR and came back in one day. It was 6 hours driving on that day, all by myself. Driving in Olympic National Park is even more rewarding. During the two days trip this time, we found three outstanding scenic roads worth strong recommendation: 1. US 101 on Lake Crescent. Right off the shoulder it was the lake. 2. Mora Road leading to the Rialto Beach. 3. Upper Hoh Road from US 101 to Hoh Rain Forest Visitor Center. I felt lucky that it was my turn to drive when we left Mora and Rialto Beach for Hoh Rain Forest. The 18 miles Upper Hoh Road from US 101 to Hoh Rain Forest Visitor Center was super fun: curve after another and very few cars. Any one who enjoys driving must not miss that road.

Trees in Hoh Rain Forest were not like anywhere else.

Kalaloch Beach was the third and the last place of our second day. We arrived there at about 4pm and we didn't spend too much time there. It was good, though in my eyes the Second Beach was the best among all the beaches that we saw on the second day.

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最近下了一个offer，买了套town home，国内的说法是联体别墅，两个卧室的。原本的计划是先租个房子住短时间，等钱腾挪过来以后直接买个single family的。但几周前和柴叔叔吃了一次饭，想法有所改变。吃好饭回到家算了一笔账，以现在这边的贷款利率，这套房子每个月还贷款约900美元，加上税和物业管理费，每个月大约是总共1300美元左右。这么一套房子，如果是租房住的话，每个月的租金（含税和物业管理费）也差不多要1100-1300左右。最差的情况下，就算未来一年里这套房子再跌个5-10%，也就权当是付租金付掉了。况且，房贷利息还可以tax deductible，一年也能省下一千多块。所以和苹果商量了一下，然后又腾挪了一下手头的现金，就决定买了。花了两个周末，看了五六套房，就选中了其中的一套下了offer。

如今身在美国，投资理财方面需要考虑的因素比之前多很多。之前在上海时，因各种客观条件所限，所有的资产和收入都是人民币，所面对的也都是国内的市场、买家和卖家。而如今，需要同时看两边。其中主要有：人民币兑美元的汇率，中国的楼市，美国的楼市，美国的贷款利率，美国的股市，中国的股市。这些因素的短期、中期和长期预期的方向都各不相同，加上各类资产的流动性不同，以及各种不同的投资配比的可能性，要做出一个相对比较优化的策略很不容易。

人民币兑美元的汇率，对我个人来说，很难说到底是人民币升值好，还是人民币贬值好。有些影响是直接的，有些影响是间接的。而且，从上半年开始，市场上的声音就出奇的一致，几乎所有人都千篇一律的看涨人民币。汇率重新开始浮动以后的初期走势也差不多和市场的预期一致。但是，人民币兑美元的汇率昨天又掉回到6.81了。未来到底怎样，很难说。

四月份国内楼市调控一出，所有人都看跌楼市，看涨的声音几乎绝迹。之后几个月的走势、价格和成交量，也基本印证了之前大多数人的判断。但是昨天又看到国内主流媒体说，中国部分城市（包括上海）的楼市8月份又上涨了，成交量也回升了。未来会怎样，很难说。唱空的人还是很多，看多的人也不少。所谓房屋的租售比过低，所谓房价与居民收入的比率过高，这些可能都是短暂的。租售比过低，未必就意味着房价要下跌。或许未来几年租金会显著上升，慢慢把租售比拉回来，慢慢的把租金的投资回报率从现在的2-3%拉回到4-5%，或许也是可能的。房价与居民收入的比率过高，也未必意味着房价要下跌。官方已经放出风声，要执行中国的国民收入倍增计划。或许三五年内，房价不跌，居民收入倍增一下，房价也就显得不高了。但另一方面，8月份的回暖，也可能是大跌(-30%)前的回光返照。发生在香港楼市的事情也有可能在上海和北京再发生一遍。

最近美国的房贷利率又创新低，达到1971年以来的最低，30年固定利率只要4.3%左右，15年固定利率更只有3.8%左右，说心里话，真的是低的令人匪夷所思。上周官方公布数据，美国楼市7月的新房和二手房的成交量都低于预期，是最近15年的最低。看上去非常有地量地价的意思。新房的数据公布当天上午，道琼斯应声大跌，一度掉进一万点。但当天晚些时候就爬回来了，而且房地产相关的股票并未大跌，涨的不少。数据出来以后，唱空的论调非常多，甚至有人写文章说房地产将永久性的失去投资价值。

或许今日美国的楼市，正是2009年2月的中国楼市。那时一片萧条，贷款利率七折以后只有4%出头一点点，且首付只要20%，仍无人出手。但很快，在短短几个月时间内，市场就回过来了。有个朋友当时买了一套莱诗邸的三房，只要三百多万，后来到四五月份，等我去看的时候，开的高的就快开到五百万了。虽然美国市场的整体节奏不如中国的起伏那么迅速，但美国楼市未必不会在未来一两年内反弹。今天的价格相比2007年的高点，很多房子跌去了30%或更多，就算中长期仍然看跌，但短期反弹个10%-15%的可能性还是存在的。

市场很难预测，很难捉摸，只能走一步看一步，像打Texas Hold'em一样，安全第一。很多情况下，如果市场上所有人都形成了非常一致的判断，那么这个判断有相当的可能性是错的。